OPEC predicts U.S. shale will steal market share for years to come

OPEC slashed estimates for the amount of oil it will need to pump in coming years. OPEC will supply a diminishing amount of oil in the next five years. Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $60.78 a barrel by 0111 GMT. It projecting that its share of world markets will shrink until the middle of the next decade amid a flood of U.S. shale supplies. OPEC, Russia and other oil producer allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, have pledged to cut production by 1.2 million barrels. Oil prices have failed to gain a lasting boost from supply disruptions this year.

The producer group expects that demand for its oil will slide by about 7% over the next four years. Oil surged on last Monday to almost $72 a barrel, posting its biggest intra-day percentage gain since the Gulf War in 1991. The weaker outlook amid a US-China trade dispute. It slumping to an average of 32.7 MMbpd in 2023, according to its annual report. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2019. Ghadhban said that the general view was that $70 per barrel or higher was acceptable.

OPEC said in its latest World Oil Outlook conference “The main driver of medium-term non-OPEC supply growth remains overwhelmingly U.S. tight oil”.

It could compel the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners. The exporter group said, despite a growing appetite for energy fed by global economic expansion. The producers are scheduled to meet again on Dec 5-6. It have already curbed output this year to prevent a glut to reduce supplies even further. It indicated the market will be in slight surplus in 2020. It adding that the producer group is seeking prices that are fair to consumers and producers alike. It compete more fiercely among themselves for a diminishing portion of global markets.

OPEC’s production of crude oil and other liquids is expected to decline to 32.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024. The international benchmark crude rose 2.5% on Wednesday to settle at $61.17 a barrel. It including the attack last month on Saudi Arabian oil installations. OPEC is assessing the impact on the oil market from attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities. Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia to maintain or adjust their policy of cutting output. The organization cut forecasts for demand for its oil each year from 2019 through 2023 by an average of about 5 MMbpd.

OPEC on August 16 provided a downbeat oil-market outlook for the rest of 2019 as economic growth slows. The OPEC+ group’s agreement to extend oil production cuts until the end. Oil prices dipped on last Thursday on lingering concerns about a weak demand outlook. It is too early for members to take any action on raising output or holding a meeting. OPEC on September 11 cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2020. It building a case to keep up an OPEC-led pact to restrain supplies. It roughly 16%, though the numbers have been affected by membership changes.

The group said in its 2019 World Oil Outlook published on November 5. An outlook the producer group said highlighted the need for ongoing efforts. Qatar left the group at the beginning of this year. It briefly shut down more than half of production in the world’s top exporter. OPEC will remain under pressure from rising U.S. oil output. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2019. It help stabilise the market and address price volatility, Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said on July 10.

America has become the world’s top oil producer through developing hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as “fracking”. A deeper cut in oil supplies is among options for OPEC and its allies to consider in December. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for global oil demand. By 2025, U.S. shale-oil output will climb more than 40% to reach 17 MMbpd. OPEC has cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2020. The United States has removed nearly 2.7 million barrels of Iranian oil from global markets daily.

American oil will account for a fifth of global daily output at that time. The OPEC+ alliance is poised to extend production cuts into 2020 as the world’s leading oil exporters fret. Qatar’s decision to end its nearly 60-year-old membership in OPEC caught many observers by surprise. U.S. deluge will also be supplemented by supplies from regions which had either seemed in decline or uneconomical. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to extend oil-supply cuts until March 2020. Explaining the motivation behind the decision, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, Qatar’s minister of state for energy affairs.

It is an era of constrained crude prices, such as offshore Norway and Brazil, as well as Canada, Guyana and Kazakhstan. OPEC is expected to agree to cut oil production at a meeting aimed at supporting oil prices. The latest blow to OPEC was delivered on last Monday when Qatar announced it is quitting the bloc next month. OPEC and its partners are due to meet next month in Vienna. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo visited Tehran for an oil. It will consider whether to deepen their current output cutbacks to avert another glut in 2020.

Russia, the most important of OPEC’s allies, has been more cautious in signaling what needs to be done. Pompeo said the US government was confident it could continue with its strategy. The OPEC chief visit came as China, Turkey and Iraq said that they cannot abide by the unilateral US sanctions. Some members of OPEC+, including Russia, are still falling short on their pledged cutbacks. Representatives from some of the world’s top oil producers are due to meet on last Thursday in Vienna. The coalition has considerable incentive to double down on its efforts.

Pompeo says “We have managed to take almost 2.7 million barrels of crude oil off of the market”.

Oil rose the most in a week after Iran became the latest OPEC member to back an extension of as long as nine months. Iranian economy is already struggling and prices are soaring. US President Donald Trump called on OPEC and its allies to keep oil production high. Qatar is a relatively small oil producer and its decision to end. OPEC nations to cover government spending, including Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest member. It was purely a business decision for Qatar’s future strategy towards the energy sector. Riyadh may also need higher prices as it sells part of state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco.

It findings of the latest report could make them consider whether the strategy is backfiring. Iran exported about 100,000 barrels per day of crude in last July. Many analysts have said the group should have heeded the warning of former Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi. The assessment is too simplistic and does not reflect Qatar’s long-term economic strategy. It predicted that by making room for shale, OPEC would be trapped in an endless spiral of production cuts. Qatar’s exit from OPEC should be seen through the lens of its long-term economic vision. OPEC’s current share of the global market is about 35%, a level it sees dwindling by 2025 to 32%.

Facebook Comments